In the period from June 6 to 9, regular elections to the European Parliament were held. It was already the tenth election after the first direct elections in 1979 and the first after Great Britain left the EU.
The team of the Intermarium Institute analytical center analyzed these elections, their results and the consequences of the new political configuration for Europe and Ukraine.
The European Parliament has become more right than the political center
The European Parliament has become more right-wing than the political center - this opinion was expressed by the expert of the Intermarium Institute, doctor of historical sciences, professor Andrii Martynov. He notes that this year's election campaign to the European Parliament took place under the slogans of introducing tougher migration legislation and fierce debates about Russia's war against Ukraine and its significance for Europe. At the end of the election campaign, even the ruling centrists in most EU countries, regardless of whether they are center-left or center-right, succumbed to the dominant public opinion and started advocating restrictions on migration. Only on the issue of direct military support to Ukraine, the most consistent position was taken by French President E. Macron. Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany O. Scholz clearly opposed sending instructors from NATO countries to Ukraine and was cautious about the use of German weapons for strikes deep into the Russian Federation.
After all, the elections of the new members of the European Parliament brought the main sensation - the humiliating defeat of the political bloc of French President E. Macron and the triumphant victory of the far-right National Rally of Marine Le Pen. In Germany, Alternative for Germany took second place, while the parties of the ruling coalition of Social Democrats, Greens and Free Democrats lost to the opposition Christian Democrats. It was the victory of the Christian Democrats in Germany that left good chances for Ursula von der Leyen to lead the European Commission again. But the composition of the commission and its course have not yet been determined.
According to Andrii Martynov, it is still clear that the symbolic victories of the European skeptics have been recorded in Austria (the Austrian Freedom Party confidently enters the federal government), Belgium (the Vlaams Belang party confidently won), the Czech Republic, and France (the victory of the National Rally) , Hungary (Fidesz), Italy (victory of G. Meloni's coalition), Netherlands (G. Wilders' Freedom Party), Poland (Law and Justice), Slovakia (Smer–SD R. Fico). European skeptics took the second or third places in Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden.
It is clear from the above results that the European Parliament convocation (2024-2029 years) will be more right-wing than the convocation (2020-2024 years). But left and right centrists still have the opportunity to shape the European Commission. However, the candidates for the positions of European Commissioners are determined by the national governments. Therefore, it is likely that in the countries where the European skeptics won, in order to show a great result, their position will have to be taken into account. It is an open question how the elections of the new composition of the European Parliament will affect the development strategy of European integration.
According to the expert of the Institute, it can be expected that a consensus between the left and the right, as well as between European optimists and European skeptics can be reached regarding the strengthening of the internal and external security of the European Union. This may become a priority for the work of the European Parliament in the new term. If official negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU do not begin by July 1, 2024, they may be blocked until January 1, 2025, because Hungary will preside over the European Union for the next six months. Most likely, even if sooner or later negotiations on Ukraine's accession begin, they promise to be difficult and long. Even evaluating the results of the European Parliament elections in the countries that the Intermarium Institute calls the countries of the "Intermarium" or "Three Seas", one can see the strengthening of the positions of European skeptics there. This may complicate the supranational level of Ukraine's cooperation with the EU, but it keeps open opportunities for bilateral cooperation, including European issues. Another thing is that such a result of the European Parliament elections raises a worrying question about the medium-term perspective of the financial and technical support of Ukraine from the EU. After all, the new composition of the European Commission will have to reckon with the opinion of European skeptics in many EU countries. Against the background of the uncertainty of US support in the new fiscal year, which begins in US on October 1, 2024, we can expect turbulence with international support for Ukraine.
The collapse of the myth of the "ultra-right threat" and the consequences of the elections to the European Parliament for Europe and Ukraine
The results of the elections to the European Parliament showed the groundlessness of all talk about the threat to Ukraine in the event of a significant increase in deputies from far-right parties, says Volodymyr Volia, strategic research coordinator of the Intermarium Institute.
He also emphasizes that the authors and proponents of the myth of the "ultra-right threat" used it in the EU itself exclusively as a tool for mobilizing the electorate loyal to the opponents of far-right parties.
So, the extreme right got a significantly smaller result than forecasters expected. A coalition based on the European People's Party (a union of national right-wing parties) with the involvement of representatives of far-right parties (but not all) seems most likely in the new composition of the European Parliament. This means that the foreign policy of the European Union will not change, and the level of support for Ukraine will not decrease.
1) In Ukrainian society, many people perceive all the elections taking place in the West as referendums on support for Ukraine. And the increase in the presence of the extreme right in power is perceived as a threat of a decrease in such support.
In fact, the elections to the European Parliament were far from being a referendum on Ukraine. Right-wing parties were able to increase their presence in the European Union thanks to criticism of the EU's policies on migration, regulation of economic activity, production standards, distribution of funds, etc. In particular, opposition right-wing parties supported farmers' discontent, supported and organized protest actions of European farmers. This helped to obtain a high result in the elections of the party National Rally in France and Confederation in Poland.
It is also indicative that the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), which received the highest result in its country during the European Parliament elections, wants to introduce a commissioner for remigration (expulsion of migrants from the EU) in the European Commission, and wants to have an Austrian representative in this position.
2) Elections to the European Parliament showed that right-wing and extreme parties have very different positions on foreign policy issues, in particular regarding Ukraine and Russia. For example, the French party National Rally condemned Russia for the war against Ukraine, and the Polish Confederation is considered pro-Russian.
Hungarian Prime Minister V. Orban and his Fidesz party used the theme of war most actively in their election rhetoric. Criticism of aid to Ukraine, intimidation of involvement in the war, campaigning for the freezing of the conflict. However, Orbán's party received a decrease in the level of support among Hungarian voters.
In Italy, the right-wing Brothers of Italy party, headed by Prime Minister G. Meloni, which is known for its active support of Ukraine, including providing military aid, got the biggest result in the European Parliament elections. Instead, the right-wing party League, led by M. Salvini, who is known for criticizing the provision of military aid to Ukraine, received a decrease in support in the elections.
It is also indicative that in the Netherlands, following the results of the national parliamentary elections, the government is formed by a coalition led by the far-right Freedom Party of G. Wilders, who unequivocally condemns Russia for the war against Ukraine.
3) The high results of far-right parties or a significant increase in their representation in the European Parliament provoked discussions about the appropriateness of early parliamentary elections in several nation-states. Many people see a threat in such early elections, because it is believed that, based on their results, parties favoring the reduction of support for Ukraine and the "freezing of the conflict" will come to power.
However, such a threat is exaggerated - believes Volodymyr Volia.
In the elections to the European Parliament, all political parties, for example in France, fought for the interests of French voters in relations with Brussels. It is a competition to gain influence on the decisions of the European Union to obtain positive solutions for its people. In this struggle, all the French parties are like one team of France, whose members compete with each other. And the elections to the national parliament are a struggle between all these parties for power over France. If in the European elections all French parties wanted a "better piece" for their state, then in the national elections France itself becomes a big pie that every political force wants to take away entirely. Therefore, for far-right parties, there is a problem of insufficient election results for independent government formation. The consequence of this problem is the problem of finding partners to create a parliamentary coalition, because the most rated parties do not seek alliances with far-right and far-left parties.
For example, in France, both center-right and far-right parties have so far refused to create hypothetical coalitions with the National Rally party (founded by Marine Le Pen).
The pro-Russian party Alternative for Germany received significant representation in the European Parliament, and in the local elections in the eastern German states it received the largest result. But if, in the case of hypothetical early elections to the Bundestag, this party would get the largest result in all of Germany, then it would be the first to get the right to form a ruling coalition, but it would not be able to do so. Because the leading German parties refuse the alliance with Alternative for Germany.
In Italy, early parliamentary elections are currently not possible, because the Prime Minister's party has essentially received approval for its political course.
4) Formation of the ruling coalition is always a way of political concessions to partner parties. The greater the ideological difference between the political forces, the more acute is the question of concessions. Far-right parties in all states do not have ideologically powerful partner parties so close that they do not have to make minimal concessions for the sake of creating a coalition government. The way of concluding coalition agreements is the way of seeking agreement by renouncing certain political slogans and tasks.
And the most important thing in this process is the request of society. For example, in the Netherlands, the coalition led by the far-right Freedom Party of G. Wilders does not seek to reduce support for Ukraine, because the rise in the level of patriotism and nationalism in Western European countries was not only due to the problem of migration, but to a large extent due to the aggressive imperial policy of Russia led by Putin.
5) In France, the National Rally party won the largest result in the elections to the European Parliament, and raised the question of the legitimacy of the authorities in their country. That is why President E. Macron called early elections of the lower house of the national parliament in order to implement the strategy of " decrease" the National Rally party, that is, to destroy the euphoria and victory myth of this party. As part of this strategy, Macron seeks to implement three tasks.
The first of them is to remove insinuations about the government and the real ratings of political forces based on the results of the parliamentary elections. Because elections to the European Parliament and elections to the national parliament are different elections that can have significantly different results. Because they take place in different semantic contexts, as well as through a two-round system in majority constituencies. The specificity of a particular majority district determines who for the candidates will become "homeboy" for the voters of the "district". Therefore, according to the results of the national elections, the National Rally party can get such a result, which, compared to the results of the European Parliament elections, will look like a sign of the party's loss of support among voters.
Macron's second task is to show the National Rally party's inability to form a coalition if it gets the biggest result in early elections. It could also be a significant blow to Marine Le Pen's party. Also, if the hypothetical process of forming a coalition does not go without concessions, which can be presented as a betrayal of the voters by the leaders of the National Rally party.
Macron's third task is to veto the laws, if they are passed by the composition of the parliament, in which the National Rally will create a coalition. In this way, the ratings of this party and its leaders can be destroyed by the time when the presidential elections will be held in France.
Therefore, the results of the elections to the European Parliament will not lead to a change in the policy of either the EU or national states in matters of support for Ukraine and pressure on Russia, the expert summarizes.
The analytical department of the Intermarium Institute