7 days have passed since the beginning of the military operation of the Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region. The information is still not enough to understand the tasks and goals set by the Ukrainian command, but let's try to draw the first conclusions.
- It can be stated that the initial stage of the operation of the Defense Forces of Ukraine is generally successful. Today, it is known for certain that several hundred Russian soldiers were captured (information about more than a thousand Russian prisoners of war appears in social networks), according to open data based on photos and videos, about a thousand Russian soldiers were destroyed or wounded, more than 160 units of military were shot down or destroyed enemy equipment. In addition, the Ukrainian military struck the enemy's logistics, took control of strategically important facilities in the region, in particular, the gas measuring station in the city of Sudzha and, probably, the airport of this city;
- During the first 7 days of the operation, the Defense Forces of Ukraine probably lost about 150 people killed and wounded, also at least 8 Ukrainian soldiers were captured by the Russians, the Ukrainian side lost at least 20 pieces of military equipment;
- Today, it is still difficult to establish the nature of the actions of the Defense Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region, as well as the area of the territories controlled by Ukraine in this Russian region, therefore, it is impossible to say with certainty that these actions are an offensive of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. Therefore, the most accurate term that characterizes the actions of Ukraine in the Kursk region is "Ukrainian military operation". As of August 13, from open sources, it can be stated that Ukraine's actions in the Kursk region are more similar to sabotage and reconnaissance. Although, it is worth noting that information in mass media and social networks arrives with a delay of 1-3 days.
- Discussion issues also concern the Ukrainian-controlled territory of the Kursk region. A number of online maps provide slightly different information about the territory under the control of the Defense Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region. However, it is also worth noting that the information on these Internet portals is updated late. The Internet resource liveuamap.com records the largest territory of the advance of Ukrainian troops. According to this resource, as of the evening of August 13, the Defense Forces are in full control of the city of Sudzha (including the airfield) and at least 18 other settlements. Also, according to liveuamap.com, Ukrainian troops advanced close to the village of Korenevo. The online deepstatemap as of the evening of August 13 shows Sudzha in the so-called "gray zone", just like the online service maphub.net. However, based on the photos and videos available on social networks and mass media, it can be concluded that Ukrainian forces currently control either all of Sudzha or a significant part of it. During the meeting on August 12, the head of the Kursk region, A. Smirnov, reported the so-called to the President of the Russian Federation, Putin, that Ukraine controls 28 settlements in the Kursk region. On August 13, during a report to V. Zelenskyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, O. Syrskyi, announced the number of 74 settlements in the Kursk region under the control of Ukrainian forces;
- The area of operation of Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups is much larger than the territories of Kursk region under the control of the Defense Forces of Ukraine and can reach such settlements of this region as Lgov, Hlushkovo, Bolshoye Soldatskoye;
- Russia has not yet sent significant forces to the Kursk region. There is only information on the Internet about the alleged transfer of units of the armed forces of the Russian Federation from the Kharkiv and Kherson regions. In this regard, two options are possible: the first is that the Russian troops present in the Kursk region are still sufficient to contain the Defense Forces of Ukraine; the second option is that Russia does not have enough reserves to transfer them to the Kursk region. The reasons for the lack of reserves can be different - from preparations for the invasion of Ukraine in other areas of the border - to a critical situation for Russian troops in the Donbass and the South of Ukraine, where Russia needs reinforcements due to numerous losses;
- It is quite likely to expect an expansion of the Ukrainian offensive in other areas of the Kursk region, in particular, in Rylsk and Tyotkino. At least, this is logical in view of the need to cover the rear for the active grouping of the Defense Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region;
- The so-called President of Russia V. Putin announced a regime of counter-terrorist operation (CTO) on the territory of Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions. In this regard, at least three conclusions can be drawn:
- The Russian authorities downplay the threat from Ukraine's actions in the Kursk region, which may indicate the local nature of Ukrainian actions in this region and the inhibition of the advance of Ukrainian troops;
- The announcement of the CTO regime may, on the contrary, indicate the fear of the Russian leadership to admit that the hostilities have fully moved to the territory of Russia, therefore, instead of martial law, the Russian authorities announced the CTO regime;
- During the legal regime of the CTO, the management of all anti-terrorist measures is carried out not by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, but by the Federal Security Service. Therefore, Putin could entrust control over the conduct of military operations not to the military, but to the FSB, since there are reasons to believe that the so-called the president of Russia trusts the special services and his closest henchmen connected with them - A. Bortnikov, N. Patrushev and S. Naryshkin - more than the military command.
- The actions of the Defense Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region have witnessed significant euphoria in Ukrainian society, the Ukrainian segment of social networks. These trends, in our opinion, are dangerous, because they resemble the euphoria of the Russians at the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation, when the Russian mass media prepared the Russians for a quick victorious war against Ukraine, the capture of Kyiv, the fall of the "Kyiv regime", the "liberation of Donbas", which changed relatively quickly disappointment and the collapse of illusions. The same trends can be observed in Ukraine. Therefore, excessive euphoria and triumphalism, sarcasm on the subject of the events in the Kursk region, may turn out to be harmful to Ukrainian society. The excessive euphoria also once again revealed the low level of the expert environment of Ukraine, its ideological bias and unprofessionalism - in the first days, a number of Ukrainian experts, commentators, leaders of public opinion also fell into euphoria and rather unprofessionally assessed the events in the Kursk region, predicting a quick capture by Ukrainian troops of the Kursk NPP, Kursk, trip to Moscow, etc.;
- Regardless of Russia's response and the results of the Military Operation of the Defense Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk Region, this act became unprecedented in recent history, because for the first time in 80 years, foreign troops entered the territory of Russia, which was hard to imagine six months ago. These actions can be considered as a great humiliation of Russia and its ruling regime. Obviously, we should wait for Russia's response. It may follow for the next 7-10 days. However, it is unlikely that it will significantly differ from the previous massive strikes. It is likely that Russia will try to strike energy, critical infrastructure, and logistics facilities. Theoretically, a strike on some bridges over the Dnipro is possible, however, its probability is currently insignificant due to Russia's inability to conduct frequent and truly effective massive attacks, which the previous 2.5 years of war have proven. It is precisely because of the above facts that the political aspect of the return of Crimea will be facilitated in the future.