On March 8, the President of Ukraine V. Zelenskyy arrived on a working visit to Istanbul, where he held talks with his Turkish counterpart R. Erdogan and had a number of meetings, in particular, with representatives of the defense and industrial complex of Turkey. In general, the agenda of the visit covered the Peace Formula, the organization of the Peace Summit, the safety of shipping in the Black Sea, global food stability, the release of Ukrainian captives and political prisoners held by the Russian side.

Will briefly analyze this visit.

Defense-industrial sphere

During his visit to Istanbul, V. Zelenskyi inspected the construction of two corvettes for the Navy of Ukraine. We are talking about corvettes of the Ada type – «Hetman Ivan Mazepa», which was launched in the fall of 2022, and «Hetman Ivan Vyhovskyi», the construction of which began in August last year. It is expected that the corvette «Hetman Ivan Mazepa» will be included in the Navy of Ukraine already this year. A total of 4 corvettes of this type are planned to be built.

In addition to the revival of the Ukrainian fleet, there were, of course, other aspects of military-industrial cooperation. The details are currently not disclosed, but it is known from open sources that in February of this year the Baykar company started the construction of a drone factory near Kyiv. Construction is expected to take 12 months, the plant will provide 500 jobs and produce 120 units per year. Although, it is not yet known how this enterprise will function in the conditions of a full-scale war and probable enemy air attacks.

In addition, the Turkish company Baykar uses Ukrainian-made engines for the production of Akıncı and Kızılelma drones. Ukraine, for its part, in 2023 sent the Turkish company Turkish Aerospace Industries two engines for the company's T929 ATAK-II attack helicopter. By 2025, Kyiv has committed to providing Ankara with 12 more such engines. Also, it should be noted that Ukraine has expressed interest in cooperation with the Turks on the creation of engines for the Turkish KAAN jet aircraft and in the future to purchase these aircraft. Although this is still a distant prospect, since the aircraft of the KAAN project belong to the fifth generation aircraft, and their development and adoption, given the American and Chinese experience, may take about 10 years.

Economy and trade

Kyiv and Ankara will continue to be important trading partners. It should be recalled that only a few weeks before the full-scale invasion, during R. Erdogan's visit to Kyiv, the parties signed an agreement on a free trade zone, the ratification of which was delayed due to the war. But despite this, and despite the suspension of Ukrainian ports and other logistical problems related to Russian aggression, trade turnover between the two countries last year reached a record 8 billion dollars, of which 3 billion were Ukrainian exports.

Although the ratification of the agreement on the free trade zone has not yet taken place, it should be noted that during V. Zelenskyi's visit to Istanbul on March 8, another agreement was signed on the creation of an electronic information exchange system that will facilitate trade between the countries. It is reported that the information received by the customs of the countries should accelerate the movement of goods and vehicles across the borders of both states, as well as combat customs violations. The ratification of the free trade zone agreement itself is expected in the coming weeks. As experts note, in case of its ratification by the parliaments of Turkey and Ukraine, the turnover between the two countries may amount to at least 10 billion dollars.

Of course, the parties did not bypass the issue of the functioning of the grain corridor, which has been paralyzed since July 2023, when Moscow unilaterally withdrew from the grain agreement. A number of mass media reports that during the meeting, the leaders of Ukraine and Turkey discussed the navigational safety of commercial vessels in the Black Sea, however, the details of these negotiations are not known today. It can be assumed that Turkey can restore the status of the guarantor of the functioning of the grain corridor, but is currently discussing preferences from this mission.

Peace formula, exchange of prisoners and diplomatic disagreements

Of course, issues of military-defense cooperation, increasing trade volumes and investments were extremely important during Zelenskyi's Turkish trip. But, it is clear that the central issue was the further involvement of Ankara in mediation in the negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow, the discussion of the so-called Formulas of peace, process of exchange of prisoners, etc. And here, it should be noted, there are somewhat different visions between Ukraine and Turkey.

For example, the presidents of the two countries expressed different approaches to the question of Russia's participation in the negotiations on the end of the war. The two leaders spoke about this at a press conference following the negotiations in Istanbul on March 8. Erdogan recalled the meeting of the Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul in the first weeks of the full-scale war. «No diplomatic steps have been taken to use the negotiating table that we built in Istanbul in March 2022 to establish peace», the Turkish president said, while stressing that his country supports Ukraine's territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence. Also, he once again confirmed that Turkey is ready to host a peace summit in which Russia will be involved.

Instead, Zelensky noted that Ukraine does not see representatives of Russia at the event, which he calls the Global Peace Summit. «We do not see how it is possible to invite people who block, destroy and kill everything. We want to get results. The result is a just peace for Ukraine. Therefore, civilized countries will first develop a plan, and only then will they involve representatives of Russia, who want a just peace», said the President of Ukraine. It should be noted that official Kyiv has repeatedly noted that any negotiations with Moscow are possible after Russian troops leave the internationally recognized territory of Ukraine.

It is noteworthy that a week earlier, the head of the Turkish Foreign Ministry H. Fidan had a meeting with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation S. Lavrov, after which he declared that it was time for Ukraine and Russia to start negotiations on a ceasefire. At the same time, he added that this should not mean recognition of the Russian occupation.

Undoubtedly, Turkey, like other countries - both of the collective West and the so-called of the global South, will officially adhere to the generally accepted norms of diplomacy and declare their commitment to the territorial integrity of Ukraine, but there is a strong possibility that it is precisely countries such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, other Persian Gulf countries and, to a lesser extent, India and China that may be the party that will persistently encourage Ukraine to negotiate with Russia to end the war. Moreover, before his visit to Turkey, V. Zelenskyi visited Saudi Arabia, where he also discussed the so-called The formula of peace and the same, without details.

And finally, on the eve of President Zelenskyi's visit to Turkey, China's special representative for Eurasia, Li Hui, arrived in Kyiv. Before that, the Chinese envoy visited Russia. Therefore, having collected all the facts - Zelensky's visit to Saudi Arabia and Turkey and the trip of the special representative of China to Kyiv and Moscow, we can conclude that the negotiation process regarding the Ukrainian case has intensified, at least on the initiative of China and its conditional «proxy diplomats» - Turks and Saudis. Of course, it is too early to draw conclusions that it is directly about a ceasefire and the end of the war or its freezing. This is a false opinion, if only in view of the fact that neither Kyiv nor Moscow are ready for compromises today. But it can be said that there is a chance for revitalization of negotiations regarding the exchange of prisoners, the return of Ukrainian children and illegally detained civilians. Again, we should not ignore the issue of trade, in particular, the renewal of the functioning of the grain corridor, in which Turkey, as a guarantor and intermediary, and China, as one of the main importers of Ukrainian grain, are interested.

So, in general, President Zelenskyi's visit to Turkey can be considered successful. He gave a new impetus to bilateral Ukrainian-Turkish relations, confirmed past agreements in multi-vector cooperation, in particular in the military industry, and outlined certain contours of the long and difficult stage of negotiations on the already mentioned Peace Formula in Ukraine.

Valentyn Haidai - director of the Intermarium Institute