The third meeting of the discussion club initiated by the Intermarium Institute was held. This time, the event was attended by: Arthur Bilous - political expert, people's deputy of the third convocation, Mykola Volhov - political consultant and the team of the Intermarium Institute in its traditional composition - Volodymyr Volia, Yuriy Gavrylechko and Valentyn Haidai.

The experts summed up the results of 2024 and gave forecasts for the next year.

Political consultant Mykola Volhov noted, in particular, in his speech the following:

“The most difficult year in the history of the restored 1991 Ukraine is over. Its complexity was due to the total uncertainty or disagreements of Western elites regarding the course of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the gradual return of Ukrainian society to the difficult reality. The pompous statements of Kyiv's Euro-Atlantic allies, multiplied by the virus of arrest, were not confirmed in reality. The leaders of democracies did not have the courage to respond to the historical challenges of today. First of all, due to the absence of a politician who could become a model for the Euro-Atlantic establishment and a banner for Western societies. Capable of decisive and large-scale actions against the country that finally destroyed the current world order, opened the political "Pandora's box" and endangered the existence of Western civilization. And the Ukrainian authorities continued to implement a false communication strategy, thereby losing trust and undermining the unity of the nation.

Instead, the anti-Western alliance surprisingly successfully took advantage of this state of affairs. Moscow went all-in on the Ukrainian front. Trying to gain the best negotiating positions on the battlefield. At the cost of the economy, the loss of spheres of influence in Syria, the Caucasus, and even the Ukrainian occupation of its own territories. The Kursk operation and the expulsion of the remnants of the Russian Black Sea Fleet from Crimea were Kyiv's greatest military successes. Which will turn into strong trump cards during future negotiations.

Trump's arrival in the White House will mean a radical change in the style of Western international policy. Sharp, ultimatum actions towards both opponents and allies will wake Europe from its afternoon nap, and Kyiv will be disillusioned and forced to move from a policy of slogans to a policy of real goals. And at least, medium-term strategic realistic planning. After all, the country will face an acute dilemma: work/fight or die.

But its solution may no longer be delegated to the Ze 2.0 regime. Local elections are to be held in October next year. To which, with a high degree of probability, at the request of our allies, parliamentary and presidential elections can be tied. In the last month, I have repeatedly heard this from likely participants in the races at all levels.

Possible peace talks will lead to a decrease in the intensity of hostilities. However, a peace agreement will not mean peace. Because it will be a peace agreement of Trump, who will be its main beneficiary and guarantor. So this diplomatic carriage will turn into a pumpkin as soon as he leaves the White House.

And the side that will win from it will be the one that will most effectively use these four years to prepare for a new full-scale clash. Which may not happen. After all, the key to victory lies not on the line of confrontation, but inside the countries that are waging this war. The one whose economy and society will demonstrate greater endurance will be the one who will write history. However, in any case, si vis pacem, para bellum.

Political expert Arthur Bilous believes that the main result of 2024 is that we have mostly survived and are looking with moderate optimism to the upcoming 2025.

The main news of the passing year was the victory of D. Trump in the presidential elections in the USA. Expectations from it for the world and Ukraine should neither be exaggerated nor underestimated.

At the same time, the expert believes that Trump's efforts to establish peace in Ukraine will gradually bear fruit and in 2025, at least, a ceasefire agreement will be reached. Together with it, Ukraine will plunge into another phase of political turbulence associated with the elections.

Valentyn Haidai, director of the Intermarium Institute, speaking about the forecasts for 2025, noted the following: “Personally, I do not believe in the possibility of ending the war quickly or relatively quickly next year or at least freezing it, nor in the possibility of holding elections. The possibility of holding elections is directly related to the cessation of the war. I do not see any mechanisms for holding elections if hostilities continue. Therefore, their prospect is rather illusory and, under optimistic scenarios, they are hypothetically possible no earlier than October-November 2025. It will not be possible to stop hostilities next year through negotiations and concessions. The parties to the conflict are putting forward unrealistic conditions to each other. We demand the liberation of all our territories, the extradition of war criminals, reparations, the Russians demand those regions that they did not even control at the time of the annexation in the fall of 2022, which is absurd, they demand the actual disarmament of the Ukrainian army, the deprivation of Ukraine of security guarantees, etc. And if Ukraine’s goals and demands are real, but today they are difficult to implement, then Russia’s demands and goals are unrealistic in principle and, I repeat, absurd. Therefore, the negotiations are doomed to failure.

I think that Trump will try to reach an agreement with Putin, but due to the above-mentioned nuances, he will not succeed. And then – the most interesting thing – what strategy will Trump choose: limited isolationism (with the preservation of key sanctions and minor support for Ukraine) or will he put pressure on Russia with greater force – will he introduce qualitatively stronger sanctions and provide greater military support to Ukraine?

Even if the US limits aid to Ukraine, we will be able to survive next year, as support from European countries is increasing and the Ukrainian military-industrial complex is growing. The main problem for Ukraine is not so much the lack of weapons, especially long-range ones, as the problem of mobilization and errors in its implementation. Therefore, the military-political leadership of Ukraine should pay attention to this first of all. However, in any case, the situation with the mobilization resource will worsen, but will not become catastrophic in 2025.

We must understand that time is playing against both Ukraine and Russia. It is obvious that in 2025 the enemy will face even greater problems in the economy, obtaining technologies and capabilities for waging war. The situation with the mobilization resource in Russia will also worsen. But in Ukraine, too, there will be similar processes in many respects. We are not cut off from Western aid, supplies of electronics and necessary military-industrial complex technologies, however, as already noted, a difficult issue for Ukraine is mobilization and the approach to mobilization. Therefore, our task, in my opinion, should be to play for the enemy's exhaustion, prevent mistakes in conducting certain military operations, increase strikes deep into Russia, strengthen our air defense, protect important infrastructure, industrial, energy facilities, etc. Only under such conditions are there chances to exhaust the enemy and end the war on our terms in 2026-2027.

Yuriy Gavrylechko – expert of the Intermarium Institute:

In the results of 2024, first of all, we have to talk not about what was done, but about what was not done. First of all, the economy was not transferred to wartime rails, and the state budget, as a financial document of peacetime, remained the same: all expenses were retained for the next year, which will in no way help defeat the enemy; worse, expenses for the maintenance of officials will only increase. Let me remind you that the average salary of civil servants has already come close to 60,000 UAH per month and is almost three times higher than the average in the branches of the economy.

As for what was done… then “under the Christmas tree” the parliament approved an increase in the level of taxation for both individuals and legal entities, and allowed representatives of law enforcement agencies to block the economic activities of enterprises out of court based on “feelings”.

Accordingly, the forecasts for next year will be based on this. First, the level of corruption will increase. Second, the economy will enter a state of stagflation, when the level of falling production is accompanied by rising inflation. No, the State Statistics Service may gush with fake reports about “production growth” and “low inflation,” but all this will be on paper – in the “best traditions of the USSR.” Third, due to the increase in corruption and the decline of the economy, Ukraine’s dependence on external factors will increase, mainly on aid from partner countries. But it is worth understanding that no partners will be able to and are not interested in supporting us at their own expense. So the price of such support will grow rapidly and become a burden for future generations of Ukrainians.”

Volodymyr Volia, strategic research coordinator of the Intermarium Institute, summarized the main events of 2024:

- a confident victory of Trump and the Republicans in the US elections;

- the fall of the Assad regime (defeat of Russia and Iran, victory of Erdogan, bonuses for Israel);

- the victory of Israel in an indirect war with Iran in 3 theaters of operations;

- for the first time in Russia, a nuclear power appeared as a military ally (the agreement between the Russian Federation and North Korea), which for the first time questioned China's influence on the DPRK;

- the BRICS crisis at the summit in Kazan, Russia;

- the first combat use of a medium-range ballistic missile (Russia's strike with the Oreshnik on Ukraine);

- for the first time since World War II, foreign troops entered the territory of Russia, for the first time they entered the territory of one of the two most powerful nuclear powers (the Kursk operation of the Ukrainian armed forces);

- for the first time since World War II, objects thousands of kilometers deep into Russian territory were attacked (attacks by Ukrainian drones and missiles);

- for the first time since 2022, Russian troops captured a significant part of the territory in the Donetsk region of Ukraine (about 15%), but did not achieve strategic changes in the front line;

- increased economic problems in Russia due to increased war spending and due to the increased negative effect of sanctions pressure;

- early parliamentary elections in France have led the country into a political crisis;

- early elections to the Bundestag;

- political crisis in Georgia following the results of the parliamentary elections, a crisis in relations between the government of this state and the West;

- Peace Summit;

- delaying the US Congress with a vote on aid for Ukraine in January-April 2024;

- increased output of Ukrainian military-industrial complex, significant progress in the development and introduction of drones and missiles;

- formation of a new axis of support for Ukraine "Great Britain - France - Germany - Poland";

- aggravation of relations in Ukrainian-Polish relations due to acute episodes of common history;

- crisis in the governance system in Ukraine.