In Russia, incidents and conflicts based on ethnic hatred have occurred throughout the years of its existence. They also took place during Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine.

However, after 24 February 2022 and until January 2024, they

- did not take place in the context of powerful geopolitical factors;

- did not contain «fingerprints» of participation in the war against Ukraine, and were not combined with anti-war sentiments

- were not aimed at protecting national territory and national rights;

- were not a protest directly or indirectly directed against the Russian authorities.

For example, in October 2023, Hamas attacked Israel and a war broke out. Anti-Semitic sentiments and mass protests erupted throughout the Muslim world. In Russia, harsh statements against Israel and Jews were made by the leaders of Chechnya, and large-scale riots occurred in Makhachkala, which had signs of a Jewish pogrom. Moscow had to curb the participants in these anti-Semitic events, but the Kremlin limited itself to mediocre condemnation, fearing full-scale repression.

In this situation, the vector of ethnic hatred was directed outside Russia. Although, according to the all-Russian census conducted in 2021, 82,644 (0.06%) of Russian residents identified themselves as Jews.

There were no slogans directed against the authorities or any anti-war «moments» in these riots. These riots were useful for the Kremlin as a tool for demonstrating with the Palestinians in the context of rhetoric against the United States and the West in general. The Putin regime «pretended» to be a friend of the Palestinians and Muslims in general. On the other hand, Putin could not turn against Muslims, who number about 20 million people in the country, and Kadyrov and his subordinate units are an important pillar of the Kremlin regime.

BASHKORTOSTAN

The situation that took place in the city of Baymak in January 2024 is qualitatively different and occurred in a qualitatively different context.

Firstly, it is a conflict in which interethnic disputes are present not in the format of relations between two people, but in the context of large ethnic groups and nations. On 15 and 17 January, protests took place in front of the district court in Baymak. The reason was the conviction of environmental activist Fail Alsinov to 4 years in a general regime colony: for inciting hatred or enmity, humiliation of human dignity (part 1 of Article 282 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation). The text of the verdict states that in April 2023, Alsinov made a speech «with negative content against people of Armenian, Caucasian and Central Asian nationalities». This happened during a protest by the local population of the Baymak district against the activities of a mining company there, which causes environmental damage. For several years, Alsinov had been a leader of such actions in Bashkortostan, and had already turned from a mere environmental activist into a leader of actions aimed at protecting the interests and basic rights of the Bashkir people.

Secondly, there was a mass protest by representatives of the Bashkir people: in Ufa (the capital of Bashkortostan), a rally in support of the imprisoned F. Alsinov was held on the square near the monument to the national hero Salavat Yulayev. This unauthorised rally was politically coloured - anti-Moscow. Singer Altinay Valitov (one of the protesters) recorded a video calling for a protest in Ufa on 19 January. In particular, he stated the following: «We live in our native land, Bashkortostan, but Bashkirs are being oppressed at every turn on the basis of their nationality. We are told to speak Russian in our native land, and school principals are fired. The government sees only one people - Russians. Propaganda from all corners tells us that we are Russians, that we are sending Bashkirs in packs to die in Ukraine. But we are not Russians. We are Bashkirs, with our thousand-year history, culture, traditions... Why do Russians in Ufa walk around saying «Russia is for Russians» and are not imprisoned, while a Bashkir who stands up for his people is imprisoned on his own land? Because we are a national minority. They can shout «We are Russians» all over the country, but we cannot on our own land. Where is the justice? Are we supposed to swallow this arbitrariness? If we do, in a hundred years the Bashkir people with a thousand-year history will disappear. I am not ready to put up with this».

Valitov called on all of Russia's national minorities to go to their city administrations and demand that they elect their own heads of republics, rather than accept those appointed by Moscow.

Third, the Russian authorities recognised the political nature of this protest movement. For example, the head of Bashkortostan, Radiy Khabirov, accused Alsinov's supporters of treason and called them separatists who want a guerrilla war.

Police and the Russian National Guard forcibly dispersed the rally in Ufa, and clashes broke out between security forces and protesters. According to the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, several people were injured, including law enforcement officers.

Criminal cases were opened under the article on «mass riots» (Article 212 of the Criminal Code) and «use of violence against law enforcement officers» (Article 318 of the Criminal Code). Rafail Dyvayev, Chairman of the Public Council of the Republican Ministry of Internal Affairs, said: «Mass riots are a threat to the national security of the country, and therefore the punishment under this article is quite serious».

Therefore, the authorities of the Russian Federation recognized that this was a national action aimed at reducing dependence on Moscow, and there was also a violent confrontation with law enforcement officers, officially registered as «mass riots», which represent a threat to the security of Russia.

At the same time, the mass media mention different numbers of protest participants - from several hundred to 5,000 people. A few hundred is also a lot if we are talking about the national and political character of the protest.

Fourthly, in the context of the protestors confrontation with the police and the Russian Guard, the topic of Putin's war against Ukraine appeared. One of the participants in the protests, a woman, recorded a video in which she called on the men of the Bashkir people to return from the war in Ukraine and defend their land. She noted that Bashkirs are being beaten with sticks while soldiers are fighting for Putin's ambitions.

Fifth, the Kremlin recognized the danger to the regime of the new quality of mass protests, in which representatives of indigenous peoples stand for national rights, for greater independence, for independence, against Russian imperial nationalism, against Putin and his war of aggression in Ukraine. That is why the spokesman of the Russian president, D. Peskov, began to deny that there were mass riots in Bashkortostan.

To these unique moments, one more should be added: the readiness of hundreds and thousands of people for violent clashes with the police and Rosgvardia even in those conditions when people are arrested not only for a silent solitary picket, but also for «wrong colors» of clothes or something else.

The events in Bashkortostan confirmed my long-standing assumption that over time a non-political protest will grow into a political and anti-war protest. And that this will happen primarily in the national republics of Russia, especially in the Muslim ones. The Kremlin is most afraid of anti-Moscow riots precisely in the Muslim republics - at least in Dagestan, at least in Bashkortostan and Tatarstan, which are rich in natural resources.

The question is also when and where in the Russian Federation the modern analogue of «Bloody Sunday» will take place (January 22, 1905 in the Russian Empire), when the authorities shot a peaceful protest that they considered dangerous for themselves, and in this way provoked the First Russian Revolution? Then the faith in the right and good king, from whom they tried to seek justice, was shot. And it turned out that the king is a bloody injustice.

Armenians in Russia are becoming the object of aggression

The negative attitude towards Armenia and Armenians is fueled by Russian propaganda, which takes revenge for the reversal of official Yerevan and the Armenian people away from Russia and towards the West.

In this regard, it is worth paying attention to the events in the city of Chekhov, Moskovska, where the organization «Russkaya obshchina» called for a lynching of Armenians and appealed to Putin to punish Armenians. The reason was that, allegedly, 15 Armenians beat one wounded Russian soldier who fought against Ukraine.

This is an example when a new geopolitical context is added to the traditional imperial chauvinism of ethnic Russians, which gives rise to a more aggressive and large-scale attitude towards the numerous Armenian community living in Russia for centuries.

The war against Ukraine and geopolitical shifts are creating negative effects for Putin's regime and the stability of the Russian Federation.

Volodymyr Volia - strategic research coordinator of the Intermarium Institute