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For Eastern Europe, 2024 will be a difficult military year, when the fate of the full-scale war itself, governments, the CSTO, and more will be decided. For Russia, instead of «three days», it will be the third year of war.
As noted in the previous post, Russia lost the war back in 2022. In 2023, Ukraine did not have enough resources to move towards the Sea of Azov and underscore Putin's defeat last year. And this is the most important strategic issue of this war going into 2024.
What can we expect in 2024?
1) Ukraine will try to launch a more powerful offensive in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. Access to the Sea of Azov, or at least a few tens of kilometres closer to it, would mean Putin's defeat in this war, and this would significantly affect the mood in Ukraine, Russia, and the positions of many states. The cost of this task will be high, but it is the decisive battle of this war.
Ukrainian forces will also increase the intensity and scale of air strikes on military targets on Russian territory. The war will be felt more in Russia itself.
In autumn, Ukraine may experience an acute internal political crisis, but there will be no elections. Censorship may increase. The formation of a new domestic political landscape for the post-war period will begin.
2) Russia will keep up the pressure on the frontlines in Ukraine until April, but during this time it may significantly deplete its military resources. A summer offensive is also being prepared. Russia will not be able to significantly move the front line, and the low effectiveness of the offensive measures that have been continuous during the third year of the war could lead to psychological exhaustion of Russian troops and a change in mood in the elite and society.
Sanctions and the war will have a further negative impact on the Russian economy and the mood of the population. A new fuel crisis may begin in the spring.
In the autumn, circumstances may arise in Russia that could lead to a crisis of power and even a revolt by frontline soldiers and relatives of the dead and wounded. A defeat in a decisive battle could significantly accelerate and exacerbate these consequences.
3) The results of the European Parliament elections will not lead to a decrease in support for Ukraine, on the contrary, it may increase.
After a compromise on the southern border and migration policy is reached, the US election campaign will be held under the slogan: «What have you done to defeat Putin and preserve America's greatness?»
4) The war in the Middle East will last 3-4 months. Convening a conference to stabilise the situation and create a security and administrative structure in the Gaza Strip for the post-war period. In 2024, the possibility of a military campaign by a coalition of states to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons will be transferred to 2024.
5) There will be no war in north-central Africa. But in some countries where Russian putschists seized power, there may be new uprisings against the rebels who are now in power.
6) Venezuela will not be able to realise its claims to the territory of Guyana without being in a state of potential armed conflict with the United States, the United Kingdom, and some other Western countries. Maduro may find himself isolated by Latin American states.
7) Tensions around Taiwan will remain at the current level, and there will be no military clash. However, there may be a tougher «show of force» by Beijing if the results of the January elections on the island strengthen the position of the pro-independence forces.
8) The situation on the Korean Peninsula will remain at the level of tension in 2023.
9) At the end of 2024, circumstances may arise for Armenia to announce its decision to withdraw from the CSTO.
10) Parliamentary elections in Georgia may lead to a decrease in «neutrality» towards Russia.