How does the situation look now?

On the eve of the second day of work of the House of Representatives, it suddenly turned out that the bill on the transfer of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, supported by Speaker Johnson, does not find tangible support within the Republican Party. In fact, Johnson is now in an «either/or» situation, where there are no intermediate options: either give $61 billion to Ukraine, and follow McCarthy to get impeached by his party colleagues.

The prevailing opinion among Democrats is that Johnson will eventually put $61 billion in Ukraine to a vote, a package that will be accepted with the overwhelming support of Democrats, who, in turn, will vote against Johnson's impeachment. The problem is that in such a situation, it is not clear what Johnson will do with it next: how will he, after making a deal with the Democrats, raise money for his election campaign? How will he convince the electorate to vote for him and for the Republicans? At the same time, ignoring the aid package for Ukraine puts the USA and the Republicans under enormous international pressure. If the package is rejected, the historic responsibility will fall on Johnson. He will have to choose between a bad option and a very bad option.

It is important to note that the problem is not aid to Ukraine as such. American parliamentarians cannot agree on any of the laws that are being debated - immigration reform, the judiciary, the act on secret surveillance for the purpose of intelligence. Therefore, the House of Representatives with a Republican majority is currently ineffective as a body.

Today, 191 votes out of 218 required (one of them - Republican, from Ken Buck) have been collected for the discharge petition (a petition to bring the project to a vote without prior discussion in committees and agreement with the speaker). But for April 9-10, no new signatures were added. So, it is worth stating that the situation with the vote on aid to Ukraine currently remains at an impasse.