- Articles
- Hits: 397
1) In September 2023, there were several statements from Western figures and several publications in the Western mass media, which spoke of the need for Ukraine and its allies to prepare for a long war with Russia. As a rule, it was not specified how long the war could be. This allows each reader to interpret this duration at their own discretion in months or years.
All these forecasts should be taken as too conditional. And for now, we can stick to the assumption that Russia can be defeated in the war against Ukraine in the middle or in the second half of 2024.
2) In September, Russian officials made several statements that directly or indirectly related to the issue of the duration of Russia's war against Ukraine.
For example, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, S. Lavrov, said in New York that Russia is ready for negotiations, but they did not cease fire during the negotiations. Such a statement contained 2 political messages.
- About readiness for negotiations. Addressed to those neutral or conditionally neutral states whose government officials and leaders speak of the need to end the war through negotiations. We are talking about the People's Republic of China, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey and others.
- On the absence of the Kremlin's intention to stop hostilities during the negotiations. It is an instrument of demonstration of power. Traditionally, in this way, Moscow tries to show the world that the Russian Federation has a lot of strength and resources to wage war for a long time, that sanctions have not helped it. And that Russia has an advantage over Ukraine and will force Kyiv to capitulate on Russian terms.
However, the most important statement was made by the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation S. Shoigu on September 26, stating: «The consistent implementation of the measures of the activity plan until 2025 will make it possible to achieve the intended goals».
What were the «intended goals» in question?
Although Shoigu spoke of «building up the combat power» of the Russian army, it is clear from the context that the «intended goals» are the end of the war, which is understood as a minimum as the full occupation of the territory of the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions of Ukraine, as well as the annexation of part of the territory of the Kharkiv region to east bank of Oskol.
Shoigu's statement is valuable in that, in contrast to Lavrov's political statements, he revealed part of the information about the Kremlin's military planning of the war against Ukraine.
This means that the leadership of Russia does not see the opportunities and does not have the necessary resources to win over Ukraine, that is, to completely capture the 4 regions by 2025.
This means that Moscow plans to fight throughout 2024.
It is significant that the «intended goals» were not achieved by Russian forces in 2022, and look very illusory in 2023. And the planning of their achievement within another year can already be considered as a «soft», veiled recognition by the Kremlin of the military failure in Ukraine.