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1) Back in 2022, Iran transferred to Russia drones that are partially Iranian and have the majority of components obtained from other countries (including Western ones). It is likely that they were disassembled, but they were collected already on Russian territory.
Unlike them, ballistic missiles cannot be called such a solid hybrid. Ballistic missiles will be identified as precisely Iranian products. And such a missile is a more powerful weapon than drones.
2) Israel takes a neutral position in relation to the Russian Federation's war against Ukraine in order not to destroy Moscow's neutrality in relation to Iranian-Israeli relations. In order not to provoke Putin into transferring technology or weapons to Tehran that will increase Iran's military potential and change the balance of power in the Middle East in its favor.
By the way, there are signs that such reasoning is one of the factors of neutrality towards Russia on the part of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
3) If the Iranian leadership decides to supply Russian combat missiles, it will take a "proper" payment for them in the form of Russian technology or weapons that will strengthen Iran's military or industrial power.
The intrigue is whether Putin will be ready to give Tehran a decent payment for ballistic missiles?
4) If the weather is sealed, the world will quickly learn about it from the debris and components found on the territory of Ukraine.
For Israel, for Saudi Arabia and the other Arab states of the Persian Gulf, for Egypt, this will be almost proof or proof on the website of the assumption that Moscow has transferred to Tehran what technologies are essentially strengthening Iran.
For the mentioned states, this will be violated by Putin's personal neutrality, as well as by the Kremlin's act of alliance with their adversary.
In such a situation, the governments of Israel, Saudi Arabia, other Arab states of the Persian Gulf, and Egypt will have no more content to maintain neutrality in relation to Russia.
A possible reaction is a separate topic.
5) The agreement between Moscow and Tehran on the exchange of ballistic missiles for technologies or weapons destroys the existing balance in the regions. And the consequence of this will be the destruction of all the efforts of China, carried out with the purpose between Iran and the states of this region. That is, the destruction of what for Beijing has become one of the strategically significant image gains in its confrontation with the USA.