The visit of Turkish President Recep Erdogan to the USA, scheduled for May 9, 2024, did not take place. The reasons for this are many, starting with the uncertainty over the war in Gaza, which provoked massive anti-Israel student protests in the US, forced Turkey to announce a trade boycott of Israel, and ended with US criticism of Turkey's actions against the Kurds in Syria and Iraq. Erdogan also decided to wait for the results of the elections of the new members of the European Parliament and the July NATO summit in Washington.

Bilateral Turkish-American relations know their ups and downs. After a failed military coup attempt in July 2016, Erdogan threatened to deny NATO the use of Incjerlik Air Base. A permanent irritant is the fact that Gulen, a political opponent of Erdogan, has been granted political asylum in the US. Despite this, there is a pragmatic aspect of the strategic aspects of relations between Turkey and the USA.

For most of his time in power, Erdogan has been trying to implement the «Greater Turan» project, which is, in particular, the fruit of Turkish-British cooperation. But in Britain, most likely, in the autumn of 2024 there will be another parliamentary election, which the Conservatives may lose to the Labor Party. Moreover, in the strategic hierarchy of foreign policy priorities of Labor, relations with Turkey may leave the zone of critical importance for London. What is the position of the USA regarding the Turan project? In the future, he will quarrel Turkey with the Russian Federation and China, because Moscow and Beijing are trying to create their condominium in Central Asia. But in political reality, Erdogan and Xi Jinping are promoting the idea of «appeasement» of Russia and Ukraine under the conditions of «freezing» in the existing front positions.

The American foreign policy school of political realism «named after Kissinger» is ready to agree to this and recognize the «Russian sphere of influence», including the captured territories of Ukraine. However, such tactical closeness of the positions of Erdogan and Xi Jinping does not exclude contradictions between them regarding the Uyghurs. Therefore, China, taking into account its ambitions of the One Belt One Road transit route, simultaneously considers Turkey a beneficial partner and a hypothetical competitor in Central Asia. This is what makes Turkey interesting for the US in the context of deterring both the Russian Federation and China.

Erdogan would like to end his political career not only by creating a confederation of Turkey and Azerbaijan based on the model of «one nation, two states», but also by fixing the transit exit to the Caspian Sea through the Zangezur corridor (Nakhchivan-Zangezur-Caspian). It is an open question what will be Iran's attitude to Turkish ambitions regarding the Zangezur Corridor. Iran, given the presence of a significant Azerbaijani share of its population, is not happy with Turkish ambitions.

It is an open question whether Biden or Trump will win on November 5 and which of them is more beneficial for Turkey. The experience of interaction with Biden was more successful than with Obama. The experience of Erdogan's interaction with Trump is approximately the same. With Biden, the Turks effectively bargained for the admission of Sweden and Finland to NATO, and they got everything they wanted (the unblocking of the contract for the supply of F-16 fighter jets, which is important for Turkey in view of the military balance of power with Greece). There was a similar experience of interaction with Trump in 2017-2020 regarding Syria.

Turkey, like the USA, is waiting for a right turn of the European Union after the June 2024 European Parliament elections. The right-conservative European Union is theoretically unlikely to be more tolerant of Turkey's accession to the EU, but will be less critical of Erdogan, compared to European left-liberals. Therefore, Erdogan will be satisfied with both the victory of Biden and Trump, in both cases, Turkey remains critical for the US position in the Middle East. Erdogan takes into account the recent victory of the opposition in the local government elections in Turkey. Turkish diplomacy presents this as readiness for the evolutionary transformation of a moderate autocracy towards a «liberal-Europeanized» (in certain clusters) political system. Under these circumstances, information about Erdogan's health, who has been suffering from diabetes for a long time, is a public secret. Therefore, he has recently been positioning his son-in-law Bayraktar as a candidate from the presidential party for the next election in 2027. At the same time, Erdogan is ready to position himself as a strong leader capable of conducting an active foreign policy, despite the problems with the Turkish economy. The exchange rate of the Turkish lira is approaching 40 per dollar, which means that inflation has not been tamed. But considerable resources are spent on active measures. Erdogan insists on updating the process of recognizing the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. Turkey is preparing the diplomatic ground for the recognition of Northern Cyprus by Azerbaijan, Bangladesh and Pakistan. British military bases remain on the Greek part of Cyprus, which, for example, were involved in repelling an Iranian missile attack against Israel on April 14. It is an open question whether the Turkish army is ready to repeat the experience of the August 1974 war under these circumstances. However, Turkey actually politically supported Tehran regarding Iran's experience of firing rockets at Israel. Erdogan publicly criticizes Netanyahu's actions in the Gaza Strip, but in reality the unofficial Turkish-Azerbaijani-Israeli alliance remains.

Andrii Martynov – expert of the Intermarium Institute