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As a result, the thesis was confirmed that there will be no power reset in Russia.
Vladimir Putin's personnel decisions actually have many meanings that are not discussed in the media.
1) The ruler of Russia did not throw out anyone from his entourage ("imperial court"), and technical replacements of several ministers were made in the technical government.
Nikolai Patrushev was dismissed from the post of Secretary of the Security Council in order to appoint Serhey Shoigu to this position. This means that the dismissal of the latter from the position of Minister of Defense is not a punishment, that he remains in the close circle of the Russian leader.
The appointment of Patrushev to the position of adviser to the president looks to many as a reduction in status. However, lowering the formal status is not equivalent to lowering the level of actual influence. Those who worked in various administrative bodies well understand that the influence on decision-making, for example, of the adviser to the head of the regional state administration can be greater or no less than the influence of the head of the department or department. And Patrushev is one of the oldest and most valuable representatives of Putin's inner circle, so he will not lose his influence, even if he is formally responsible for shipbuilding. The Russian ruler demonstrated that he leaves him in his entourage.
Therefore, S. Shoigu will oversee a significant part of defense issues in his new positions, although he will not be directly responsible for the affairs of the Ministry of Defense. And N. Patrushev will probably oversee a significant part of the activities of the Security Council, which is formally headed by S. Shoigu.
Such representatives of Putin's entourage as the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service S. Naryshkin, director of the FSS A. Bortnikov, Minister of Foreign Affairs S. Lavrov, and Minister of Internal Affairs V. Kolokoltsev remained in their positions.
By the way, the son of N. Patrushev - D. Patrushev - was promoted: he was the Minister of Agriculture, he became the deputy head of the government.
It is significant that the head of the government M. Mishustin and members of the government, who are either members of Putin's entourage or efficient technical managers whose work suits him, have remained in office. These are curators of industry, trade, energy, and the financial sphere, such as Deputy Prime Minister D. Manturov. A. Novak, A. Overchuk, Minister of Finance A. Siluanov. Also, M. Khusnulin, who is the curator for the regions of Ukraine occupied by Russia, remained in the post of deputy head of the government.
On the one hand, all this means the continuation of Putin's course of war "to the victorious end". But on the other hand, the Kremlin regime is trying to find new ways to survive under the pressure of sanctions and the pressure of rising war costs. It is possible that the ruler of Russia expects to do this thanks to the new heads of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Energy, the Ministry of Agriculture, and the Ministry of Transport.
2) Putin has realized that the war is destroying his country's resources, and therefore it is necessary to optimize the spending on the war. He himself stated this during a meeting with the commanders of the military districts, explaining the meaning of the appointment of A. Belousov as the Minister of Defense:
- "this is not least due to the fact that the costs of the military component are increasing (in 2024, the total costs for defense and security will amount to 8.7%, "perhaps it will be a little more");
- instructed to carefully and effectively dispose of the funds allocated for the Ministry of Defense.
And this is necessary, because "the relationship between guns and oil must be organically incorporated into the overall development strategy." That is, the growing costs of "cannons" lead to the problem of "oil" costs. Russia's non-military sphere is beginning to feel the negative effects of annual record war spending under sanctions pressure.
Belousov himself, during his speech even before being approved for the position of Minister of Defense, spoke about plans to optimize military expenditures during his speech at the Federation Council of the Russian Federation: "Optimization does not mean a general reduction. Optimization primarily means increasing their efficiency. So that every ruble of budget money, which is ultimately paid by our citizens, the business brought the maximum effect. This also applies to security. Production and supply of new military equipment and weapons. And personnel support".
A. Belousov is not just a representative of Putin's close circle, but his trusted representative. He was an assistant to the President of Russia on economic issues in 2013-2020, and before that - Minister of Economic Development (2012-2013). From January 21, 2020 to May 7, 2024, he held the position of First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, including temporarily acting as Prime Minister when Mishustin was on sick leave in April-May 2020.
Considering the past and present episodes of Belousov's state career, the question arises, does Putin consider him as his successor in the post of president?
By the way, the change of the head of the Ministry of Defense took place against the background of several corruption cases against ministry officials. The FSB was forced to actively engage in military corruption. Shoigu was removed from the leadership to distance him as a representative of Putin's entourage from corruption scandals. At the same time, Bilousov was appointed to "turn the page" and show how Putin, through his trusted representative, cleans up corruption in the military sphere. "The good tsar" destroys corruption, which destroyed trust in the Kremlin regime throughout the years of the war. Because it is this corruption that causes widespread discontent among the Russian military fighting at the front.
3) Another new leader will control expenditures from the Russian budget not only for the military, but also for all other needs.
The Federation Council appointed Boris Kovalchuk, who is the son of Putin's friend - Chairman of the Board of Directors of Bank "Russia" Yuriy Kovalchuk, to the post of Chairman of the Accounting Chamber of the Russian Federation. The new "controller" of Russia was the deputy head of the Presidential Control Department back in March of this year. And since 2009, he has been the head of Inter RAO, which is one of the largest energy companies in the Russian Federation.
Unlike Belousov, who will monitor the correctness of spending on "cannons", Kovalchuk will probably monitor more on the correctness of spending on "oil" on behalf of Putin.
When the Kremlin regime begins to tighten control over all expenses, it means that expenses become critical, because sanctions significantly reduce the income of the Russian budget. Therefore, it is necessary to control all expenses carefully - through highly trusted persons.
4) Putin undertook such a large-scale and careful optimization of state expenditures and so carefully controlled them due to the realization that the war could last for several more years. That is, the Russian ruler is not really sure of Russia's victory, which he has said many times. He does not know how long the war will last, he is simply preparing to fight for years under the pressure of sanctions.
In fact, Putin indirectly admitted that for Russia the war has come to a "dead end". This is almost his realization that the war against Ukraine has become a historical trap for him.